Pick any CS2 case to see the real drop odds, the value of every possible skin, and the expected value against the cost to open. Then try the visual opener to see how it feels, using the exact same odds. It is a simulation, so nothing is spent.
Opening cases is gambling and loses money on average. The return to player is well below 100 percent for almost every case. Values are based on the cheapest available listings online and do not include applied stickers, rare patterns, StatTrak premiums or marketplace fees. The visual opener is a free simulation with no real items and no spending. 18+.
Every Counter-Strike 2 weapon case shares the same official drop rates. The rarer the tier, the lower the chance, and the knife or glove tier is the rarest of all. Inside each tier every skin is equally likely, so a case with fewer skins in a tier gives each one a bigger share.
| Rarity | Drop chance | Roughly |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec (blue) | 79.92% | 4 in 5 opens |
| Restricted (purple) | 15.98% | about 1 in 6 |
| Classified (pink) | 3.20% | about 1 in 31 |
| Covert (red) | 0.64% | about 1 in 156 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | 0.26% | about 1 in 385 |
On top of this, any dropped item has roughly a 1 in 10 chance to be StatTrak, which usually adds value. This calculator prices the normal version, so a StatTrak drop can be worth more than shown.
For profit, no. The math is built to favour the house, exactly like a slot machine, so across many opens you will spend more than you get back. The excitement comes from the small chance of a Covert or a knife. Treat case opening as paid entertainment, set a budget, and check the expected value here first so you know the real odds before you spend.
Common questions about case odds, value and opening.
Every weapon case uses the same drop rates: Mil-Spec 79.92 percent, Restricted 15.98 percent, Classified 3.20 percent, Covert 0.64 percent, and a Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) at 0.26 percent. Inside each rarity, every skin is equally likely.
Expected value (EV) is the average return per open. We take each rarity chance, multiply it by the average value of the skins in that rarity, add it all up, and compare it to the cost of the case plus a key. For almost every case the EV is well below the cost, which is why opening cases loses money on average.
As an investment, no. The return to player is usually far below 100 percent, so over many opens you lose money. People open cases for the chance and the fun, not for profit. Use this calculator to see the real EV before you spend.
The Rare Special Item tier, which holds the knives and gloves, drops at 0.26 percent, or about 1 in 385 openings. Within that tier each knife or glove finish is equally likely, so the specific knife you want is rarer still.
You need the case plus a key. The key is a fixed price of about 2.49 dollars, and the case itself trades on the market. This tool adds both together as your cost to open.
No. The opener is a simulation for fun. It draws a random item using the real drop rates of the case, but no real items are opened, nothing is added to your inventory and nothing is spent.
Every case and skin is priced from the RiskySkins index, which tracks 8 marketplaces and keeps the lowest available price per item. It is the same pricing used across the site.