Put in skins of the same rarity, set their floats, and see every possible outcome of the trade-up contract: the real probability, projected float, price, and whether the contract turns a profit. Ten skins go one rarity up; five Covert skins craft a knife or glove from that case.
Tap a slot to choose a skin. Drag each float slider to match the items you own.
Add 10 inputs to calculate.
Trade-up contracts are a form of gambling. The outcome is random, and most contracts are negative expected value, so on average you lose money over time. Prices shown are live lowest-market estimates from the RiskySkins index and change constantly. Real buy and sell prices, marketplace fees and StatTrak™ are not fully reflected, so treat the numbers as a guide, not a guarantee. Never trade up more than you can afford to lose. 18+.
A CS2 trade-up contract exchanges 10 skins of the same rarity for 1 skin one rarity higher. You choose the 10 inputs, the game picks a random result, and the collections you feed in decide which skins are possible. There is one special case: a Covert contract needs only 5 skins and returns a knife or gloves from that case. This tool builds both kinds and shows every outcome with its real odds, float and price before you risk anything.
Two things decide your result: which collections your inputs belong to, and the average float of those inputs. Each collection gets a share of the outcome equal to its share of your inputs, and that share is split evenly across the collection valid outputs. So if all 10 inputs come from one collection, you are guaranteed a skin from that collection, split evenly between its next-rarity skins.
| Contract | Inputs | You receive |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer to Industrial | 10 | 1 Industrial skin |
| Industrial to Mil-Spec | 10 | 1 Mil-Spec skin |
| Mil-Spec to Restricted | 10 | 1 Restricted skin |
| Restricted to Classified | 10 | 1 Classified skin |
| Classified to Covert | 10 | 1 Covert skin |
| Covert to Special (gold) | 5 | 1 knife or gloves |
The float of your result follows the current CS2 formula. Each input float is normalised to a 0 to 1 value inside that skin own wear range, the normalised values are averaged, and that average is mapped onto each possible output range. Because every skin has its own minimum and maximum float, the same set of inputs can produce a different final float for each outcome. Low-float inputs push results toward Factory New only when the output skin range allows it.
Expected value and win chance answer different questions. A contract can be profitable on average and still lose most of the time, because a few rare hits carry the average.
After you add your inputs, the calculator shows four figures. Read them together, not in isolation.
| Figure | What it tells you |
|---|---|
| Input cost | What you pay for all your inputs at the wear you set. |
| Expected value | The average value of the result across every possible outcome, weighted by its probability. |
| Expected profit | Expected value minus input cost. A positive number means the contract profits on average over many runs. |
| Profit chance | The share of outcomes worth more than your input cost. This is how often a single contract wins. |
For most contracts, no. Across a large number of runs the majority return less than they cost, which is why the community treats trade-ups as gambling rather than investing. A minority of contracts are positive expected value, but they are often long-shot bets on a rare high-value skin, so you lose far more often than you win. Selling fees on marketplaces reduce real profit further, and a contract with a small paper profit can turn negative once fees are paid.
Across a large number of contracts, most trade-ups return less than they cost. Treat a positive expected value as an edge, not a promise.
Every price in this calculator comes from the RiskySkins price index, the same source used across the site. Here is exactly how it works.
Common questions about trade-up contracts and this calculator.
A trade-up contract exchanges 10 skins of the same rarity for 1 skin of the next rarity up. There is one exception: a Covert (gold) contract takes 5 Covert skins and returns a knife or gloves from that case. This calculator runs both types.
Each collection you put in gets a share of the outcome equal to its share of your inputs. Put 7 of your 10 skins from one collection and that collection has a 70 percent chance to decide the result. Within a collection, every next-rarity skin is equally likely, so the collection share is split evenly across its outputs.
CS2 normalises each input float to a 0 to 1 value inside that skin own min and max range, averages those normalised values, then maps the average onto each possible output range. Because every skin has its own wear range, different outcomes can show different final floats from the same set of inputs.
Most contracts are negative expected value, which means that across many runs you lose money on average. A minority are positive expected value, but even those are often long-shot bets you lose most of the time. Always compare the expected value to your input cost, and remember that selling fees eat into any profit.
Expected value is the average return over many contracts. Profit chance is how often a single contract returns more than it cost. A contract can have a positive expected value and still lose most of the time, because a few rare high-value hits carry the average.
Yes. Since the 2024 update you can trade up 5 Covert skins from the same case to receive a knife or gloves from that case rare special item pool. Pick the Covert tier in this calculator to build one and see every possible knife or glove with its odds and price.
Prices come from the RiskySkins price index, which tracks 8 marketplaces and stores the lowest available price for every wear of every skin. Inputs are priced at the wear you set, and each outcome is priced at the wear its calculated float falls into.
Yes. You can build contracts, set floats, and read the full outcome breakdown as often as you like, with no account and no Steam login required.
No. The numbers use live lowest-market prices and do not subtract selling fees or add StatTrak premiums. Treat the result as a clear estimate of value, then check the exact skins and fees on their price pages before you commit.
Mil-Spec to Restricted is the common starting point. The input skins are cheap, the collections are easy to control, and you can learn how odds and floats behave without risking much money.